EMRE CIHANGIR

Prepared by

APRIL

2025

1018

988

Total Goals

Own Goals

Team Goals

HOW I VERIFIED IT?

WHAT I DISCOVERED:

I checked the total goals on Transfermarkt(Goal

Distribution According To Type" page) against

those from FBref and the official league sources.

I verified that the total goals matched by

calculating (Sum of Team Goals) + (Own Goals).

Because of differences in total goals and top scorers’ goals between seasons, I decided not to use

Transfermarkt statistics when I compared it with official stats and Opta.

I recently looked more into this gap more and discovered that own goals are not included in

Transfermarkt's "Distribution Of Goals" data, which supposed to show the total goals scored by teams

each season.

However, in the "Goal Distribution According To Type" page, you can see the official numbers of the

total goals, without having the category of "own goals".

It is not the best idea because it is not like the opposition team scores own goals on purpose or

without a given team's push and efforts against the opposition

Therefore, home+away goals should be calculated in the Transfermarket datasets.

PREMIER LEAGUE

2017/2018 EXAMPLE

Based on Transfermarkt data:

Team Goals

Own Goals

Total Goals

MAJOR

CHANGES

FOOTBALL

Sheikh Mansour, the royal family of Abu Dhabi

owns 81% of the City Football Group, of which

Manchester City is a member. Also, City has been

facing with 115 Premier League charges since 2023

for financial misreporting and obstructing

investigations from 2009 to 2018. Penalties could

include fines or even relegation if proven.

Key Players:

Their transfers and performances

Rule Changes:

Video Assistant Referee(VAR) (2017)

Five Substitutions Rule (2020)

Economic Factors:

Foreign Ownership - Investments

Financial Regulations (FFP) (2013)

Revenue Growth

DID YOU KNOW?

MAJOR CHANGES THAT

COULD AFFECT

GOALSCORING

Part I: Examine the effects of major player transfers and important rule changes (such as

VAR and the introduction of five substitutes) on seasonal goal totals.

Part II: Examine the impact of economic factors on seasonal goal trends, such as

financial rules (FFP), foreign club ownership, and increased spendings in transfer fees

and wages

To offer a comprehensive examination of Big 5's goal trends for the 2013–2023 timeframe,

highlighting significant trends and changes.

MISSION

VISION

PART I: KEY TRANSFERS

While we can't deny that record-breaker contributions by players sometimes resulted in fewer goals next season after

the given player's departures, we see many inconsistencies with this belief, indicating that the rise of goal

distribution(meaning "Goals spread across more teams and players rather than a few key(star) players").

In Premier League, despite Mohamed Salah's record-breaking individual performance (42 goals and assists) in the

2017–2018 season, league goals overall declined, and his contribution further dropped to 30 the following season,

even as total league goals increased, indicating that tactical shifts and improved goal distribution played a greater

role than individual impact. Similarly, Erling Haaland initially appeared to drive up goal totals, but in his second season

(2023–2024), following Harry Kane’s departure—who holds the record for the most Premier League goals for a single

club—his contributions fell from 44 to 32, despite league goals peaking at 1246.

Moreover, this does not only apply to Premier League, but all the leagues we are reviewing. To give at least one

example per league; In La Liga, 2014/2015 season when Suarez joined, Ronaldo and Messi peaked their contribution

in this 2013-2023 period( 65 and 64 G+A in order) and yet, the league's total goals decreased. In Bundesliga

2018/2019 season, we see a significant increase from the previous season, however, these season's most G+A

contributor Lewandowski, had the numbers 31 and 32 respectively, but the change was 118 goals, could be only

explained by increased goal distribution. In Ligue 1 2016/2017 season, Ibrahimovic leaves (the previous season's

record breaking contributor, 51 G+A) while the most G+A contributor stood at 39, the total goals increased by 31.

Lastly, In Serie A , the 3rd G+A contributor in 2014/2015 season was Higuain with 25, which he increased and were

the leader in the following season with 38, as you can guess, the total goals decreased. All these cases suggest that

overall goal increases are more likely the result of tactical evolution and increased goal distribution by other players

rather than reliance on big stars.

But we must admit we have "Exception that proves the rule" cases, with most of it cluster in Serie A in 2016/2017,

when total goals increased drastically, a lot of it depended on individual performances. When we look at top 10 G+A

list, the difference was +72 goals from the previous season, explaining the half of the total increase that season(+144).

PART I: RULE CHANGES

When looking at rule changes, it initially appears that the introduction of VAR resulted in a significant drop in goals in

the visuals every time VAR was introduced. It is a complex matter because it can be perhaps the players were more

careful how they were playing, resulting in a conservative approach(more defensive, less total goals) or it can be that

VAR was intervening more than it should when it was first introduced. The latter was the case for Premier League

and since I have no consistent data for the other 4 leagues, just like how globally these top 5 leagues categorized

together because of their similarity, we will have to assume there is a standard refereeing for the VAR.

There was a net loss of 55 goals during the first VAR season (2019–20) in Premier League, which resulted in a 5.13%

drop in overall scoring. This influence, however, drastically decreased the next year (-19 goals, barely -1.84% impact).

Surprisingly VAR had a positive contribution (+4 goals) in 2021–2022, but this was reversed in the following seasons

(-43 and -33 goals, respectively). Overall -2.73% of VAR impact for Premier League, -29 goals per season.

Therefore, we can see the negative almost like suppressing impact of VAR even with the exception(like in the player

performances). When it comes to the psychological part, everyone seemed to be affected as De Bruyne told in 2020

"I don't know the rules anymore honestly" . The players were more cautious, such in the analysis by onefootball.com of

Serie A showed: "Coaches and players are currently more cautious about the fact that any of their moves may result

in penalties or sending off, thereby making teams change their tactics."

Following COVID-19, the 5-substitution rule was made permanently throughout Europe in different seasons,

bringing about minor but significant changes to the dynamics of matches. It was actually thought richer teams with

deeper benches have a tactical edge, which causes the performance gap to widen, but according to this research,

and the impact varies across leagues and teams, with no clear evidence that it strengthens rich clubs. The rule has

undoubtedly improved tactical flexibility, enabling managers to respond quickly with new attackers or reinforce

defensively, even though there isn't enough statistical evidence to directly connect it to more goals. However, we

know that 13.3% of goals scored in the Premier League in 2023-24 came via subs, making a record, which shows an

increase from 8% which was the last season before 5 subs.

PART II: OWNERSHIP

The financial capacity, strategic vision, and general competitiveness of a football team can all be significantly

impacted by something called foreign ownership. It frequently brings in large amounts of money, which could help

teams advance by paying for player acquisitions, infrastructure upgrades, and even international marketing

campaigns as well as raising questions about financial fair play laws, excessive financial gaps between teams, and

clubs losing their sense of identity. Examining foreign ownership patterns now, together with other financial

parameters we will be looking thoroughly in the next slide, can offer important insights into how global capital affects

the top football leagues in Europe in terms of goal trends.

I would like to start with Premier League which were 8/20 teams in 2013 and reached to 17/20 in 2023, an interesting

finding being 9/20 being USA-owned.

In contrast, La Liga remained predominantly domestically owned, with only 6 clubs under foreign control by 2024.

Notable takeovers include Valencia (Singapore), Espanyol and Granada (China), Almería (Saudi Arabia), and

controversially, Girona, largely owned by the UAE's City Football Group, raising questions around financial fair-play.

The Bundesliga, protected by the 50+1 rule, experienced minimal foreign influence, with RB Leipzig (Austria's Red

Bull) remaining the sole foreign-controlled club.

Meanwhile, Ligue 1 experienced rapid internationalization, jumping from just 3 foreign-owned clubs in 2013 to nearly

half the league (9 clubs) by 2024, led by major investors such as PSG (Qatar), Monaco (Russia), and several U.S.-

owned clubs including Marseille, Lyon, Toulouse, and Strasbourg.

Similarly, Serie A transformed significantly: from only Roma having foreign ownership in 2013 to 9 clubs by 2024

predominantly under North American control including iconic teams like AC Milan, Inter, and Atalanta. Another

interesting finding is that Chinese investors initially entered but were mostly replaced by American owners in the

2020s.

Overall, foreign ownership reshaped the Premier League, Ligue 1, and Serie A, made moderate inroads in La Liga, and

had minimal impact on the Bundesliga.

PART II: ECONOMICS

We see that total goals are increasing ever so slightly, but revenues and spendings increased drastically more, yet we

are not seeing the reflection on the stats, even though the spendings are more than doubled. This indicates more

that football, as an industry, grew more than the statistics could have. Instead, what we are seeing is a moderate

growth trend in the Goals-Per-Game with 4.45%, the growth numbers and spendings are much more higher than

4.45%

Lets take a look at transfer fees committed by league, with add-ons (2015-2024) :

Premier League clubs spent €23 billion (2015–2024), with roughly €9.67 billion of €16.99 billion (57%) spent by the

"Big 6." Yet, Chelsea's €630.25m spending in 2022/2023 lead to a 12th-place finish, shows high spending doesn't

always mean success. La Liga spent approximately €8 billion, peaking in 2019 (€1.37 billion), mostly concentrated on

Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Atlético Madrid, who dominated domestically but had costly failures, such as Barcelona's

€300m misspending on Coutinho and Griezmann. Bundesliga clubs invested €7.2 billion, maintaining balanced

finances with a moderate deficit (-€0.59 billion). Bayern Munich's significant spending (€1.20 billion) translated into

consistent titles, contrasting Hertha Berlin’s relegation after a €374m investment. Ligue 1 spent about €7.4 billion yet

notably achieved net transfer profits (+€0.23 billion), highlighting a model focused on talent development. PSG

dominated financially (€1.90 billion spent), winning eight domestic titles but failing to secure European success, while

clubs like Monaco and Lille succeeded with modest budgets. Serie A clubs had substantial expenditures (€10.8

billion, -€1.46 billion net), primarily driven by Juventus (€1.77 billion), AC Milan, Inter, and Napoli. High spending

generally helped with domestic success, but it didn't result in European competitions.

In terms of revenue (2013–2023), significant increases accompanied this rise in spendings: Premier League

revenues rose by 79%, La Liga saw the highest growth at 83%, Bundesliga and Serie A each increased by 68%, and

Ligue 1 experienced the lowest yet notable growth at 58% while being the only league with net transfer profit!

DATA ANALYSIS & CONCLUSIONS

One thing we know is except for La Liga, all the leagues have a positive trend. Now, examining Goals-Per-Game

data based on the factors will be helping us understand the interactions better together with numbers, and the main

question is what affects the goals the most?

Premier League(GB1) consistently showed a higher than average (2.65) goal rate except for a slight dip in

2014/15 (2.56), together with a record-breaking 3.27 goals/game in 2023/24. And this period coincided with

massive investments (€23 billion transfer spending(265% rise from 2013!, 79% revenue growth and foreign-

ownership increase) and therefore we can think economics played a role in this rise, but we should not forget that

the tactics(more attacking) and increased goal distribution are even more important, my data analysis project

concludes. As we will be diving into the other leagues, my analysis will be proved further.

La Liga(ES1) peaked significantly in 2016/17(2.94), alongside of the prime years of Messi and Ronaldo, and was

higher than the average goal rate but followed notable decline from 2017/18 onwards only to return to the

average line in 2023/2024 season, despite the most revenue growth (+83% revenue) and more than 8 billion

spending(the 3 most). This shift marks my argument about tactics and goal distribution rather than economical

numbers.

Serie A(IT1) jointly highest with La Liga until 2017/18, peaking in 2020/2021 with 3.06, experienced the biggest

fluctuations, having the most stable trend line overall, and was the only league to be affected the most with key

players(2016/2017) Its slight decline and subsequent stabilization reflect tactical adaptations after high-profile

player movements, despite substantial financial spending,€10.8 billion(the 2 most).

Bundesliga(L1), uniquely the only one to be below the 2.65 threshold all the time, experienced a sustained rise

post-2018/19, only to peak at 2.59 in 2023/2024. The careful financial model (€7.2 billion spent, the least spent in

big 5, and moderate deficit) and limited foreign influence (RB Leipzig exception) correlate again with gradual but

consistent tactical developments leading to higher scoring.

Ligue 1(FR1) demonstrated significant change: rising steadily until 2017/18 for 5 seasons consecutively, then

dropping until 2020/21, before rebounding and dropping slightly again in 2023/2024(the only league to not rise in

that season). Had 2 peak seasons with 2.80 (20/21 and 21/22).Despite financial dominance by PSG (€1.9 billion

spent), it's notable for being the second least spender and having the only positive net transfer balance ,

emphasize tactics before economy, yet once again.

FINALIZATION!

Despite an overall modest increase of 4.45% in Goals-Per-Game across all five leagues, transfer expenditures and

revenues surged disproportionately. Hence, while financial expansion significantly reshaped European football's

landscape undoubtedly, total goals increased only slightly, this underscores that tactical innovation and goal

distribution among players, it shows that teams are adapting to be more collective scorers, and these were more

influential than mere financial investments.

Looking at the stacked visualization of total goals from 2013/14 to 2023/24, can help us see the big picture also. We

see remarkable stability and moderate increase in the recent years. Despite considerable financial injections,

particularly evident in leagues such as the Premier League and Serie A, the overall height of the stacks has not

changed significantly, reinforcing that goal totals have not grown proportionally to economic growth. And the

visualization emphasizes the relatively stable share of each league, notably with the Premier League maintaining a

consistently large proportion and even expanding. But conversely, La Liga's portion visibly shrinks post-2017/18,

coinciding with key player departures and tactical shifts, illustrating the crucial role of strategic adaptations beyond

finances alone. Thus, the visual confirms that while money can profoundly reshapes the dynamics of football, actual

goal output remains more intricately tied to tactics, player distribution.

FUTURE RESEARCH &

CONSIDERATIONS:

While this analysis has demonstrated that tactical evolution and player distribution significantly outweigh just financial

factors in influencing goal trends, deeper analysis and future research shall emerge:

Tactical Evolution and Analytics:1.

Future projects can dive deeper into tactical analytics (expected goals (xG), formations, pressing strategies,

defensive structures etc.) to better quantify exactly how tactics influence scoring patterns beyond financial

factors. As well as, the comparison between rich and poor teams in the given league.

Expanded VAR and Rule Change Analysis:2.

A detailed comparative study of VAR impacts across different leagues, analyzing specifics such as penalty

frequency, offside calls, and disallowed goal statistics. Also, further exploration into how the tactical flexibility

provided by the 5-substitution rule evolves, particularly how wealthier clubs leverage deeper benches

compared to less financially powerful teams, although there is one research, it is not enough to conclude yet.

Final Thoughts:

Football, as revealed by this analysis, is not purely a financial thing, but a complex interplay between economics,

tactics, regulations, and human dynamics on the pitch. Future studies could leverage more data and advanced

analytical models to deepen our understanding of these relationships.

Ultimately, while money significantly can shape the competitive landscape, the heart of the game(goals) ,and thus its

scoring dynamics, remains still driven by human decision making, strategic innovation, and adaptability to change.